Triggering: LA Fires

[Mindfulness.]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/an...d=BingNewsVerp

This is just awful. Thinking about all those currently affected.

[Proud90sKid]

California burns. It is nothing out of the ordinary besides the location in LA county. It is part of their natural ecology and climate. But yeah it sucks when natural disasters happen. Fire and water are particularly fierce elements of nature and can ruin everything you own. But there is nothing unusual about either the flame fanning Santa Ana winds or the California wildfires. Fire is a component of California's ecologic balance, so it isnt all bad from that perspective. However I sympathize with people who fear losing everything as I had that same fear when hurricane Milton was aimed right at Florida's west coast (live in a potential tidal surge zone).

While these events may become worse under global warming, I really dislike the politicalization of events like this. If there is a drought leading to fire, then many Californians scream global warming. If there is a winter with atmospheric rivers instead? Global warming. If they have one of their somewhat rare thunderstorms: global warming at it again. It sounds ridiculous on the other side of the continent. It seems like every year California weather gets politicalized due to either an abundance of rain/wintertime atmospheric river event or a deficit in rain. California has weather and natural disasters under its normal climate and it is ridiculous to politicize it.

At the end of the day California is prone to wildfires due to its natural dry summer Mediterranean climate that usually brings enough rain in winter though to produce forests and not be a desert. LA is in the subtropics but doesnt get any of the tropical summer rainfall that the southeast does. Add to that more vegetation than in desert climates and fanning effects from Santa Ana winds and you have a real threat of fires during winters that havent brought the rain.

[Hiraeth.]

Originally Posted by Proud90sKid

California burns. It is nothing out of the ordinary besides the location in LA county. It is part of their natural ecology and climate. But yeah it sucks when natural disasters happen. Fire and water are particularly fierce elements of nature and can ruin everything you own. But there is nothing unusual about either the flame fanning Santa Ana winds or the California wildfires. Fire is a component of California's ecologic balance, so it isnt all bad from that perspective. However I sympathize with people who fear losing everything as I had that same fear when hurricane Milton was aimed right at Florida's west coast (live in a potential tidal surge zone).

While these events may become worse under global warming, I really dislike the politicalization of events like this. If there is a drought leading to fire, then many Californians scream global warming. If there is a winter with atmospheric rivers instead? Global warming. If they have one of their somewhat rare thunderstorms: global warming at it again. It sounds ridiculous on the other side of the continent. It seems like every year California weather gets politicalized due to either an abundance of rain/wintertime atmospheric river event or a deficit in rain. California has weather and natural disasters under its normal climate and it is ridiculous to politicize it.

At the end of the day California is prone to wildfires due to its natural dry summer Mediterranean climate that usually brings enough rain in winter though to produce forests and not be a desert. LA is in the subtropics but doesnt get any of the tropical summer rainfall that the southeast does. Add to that more vegetation than in desert climates and fanning effects from Santa Ana winds and you have a real threat of fires during winters that havent brought the rain.

Can you provide evidence of devastating fires before the Industrial Revolution?

[Proud90sKid]

Originally Posted by Hiraeth.

Can you provide evidence of devastating fires before the Industrial Revolution?

There were definitely fires before the industrial revolution. Due to Cali not being a state until the mid 1800s, the human costs were much lower and they also wouldnt have been called "California fires". Population (locally and globally) was much much lower so less of a human toll. Has nothing to do with climate change though.

No idea why you put that "you are wrong" smirky face when you clearly don't know what you are talking about. I find it crazy that you think there were no large wildfires pre-industrial revolution. That's like saying there were no major hurricane landfalls along the Gulf Coast until recent centuries. It is commonly used to make a person look wrong on social media because they know most readers wont bother fact checking. Very common on reddit especially.

Here is a paper discussing results of analyses of pre-historic wildfires along the N American west coast using soil samples.

If anything, humans have decreased the frequency of fires. https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1112839109

Here is the abstract:

Understanding the causes and consequences of wildfires in forests of the western United States requires integrated information about fire, climate changes, and human activity on multiple temporal scales. We use sedimentary charcoal accumulation rates to construct long-term variations in fire during the past 3,000 y in the American West and compare this record to independent fire-history data from historical records and fire scars. There has been a slight decline in burning over the past 3,000 y, with the lowest levels attained during the 20th century and during the Little Ice Age (LIA, ca. 1400–1700 CE [Common Era]). Prominent peaks in forest fires occurred during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (ca. 950–1250 CE) and during the 1800s. Analysis of climate reconstructions beginning from 500 CE and population data show that temperature and drought predict changes in biomass burning up to the late 1800s CE. Since the late 1800s, human activities and the ecological effects of recent high fire activity caused a large, abrupt decline in burning similar to the LIA fire decline. Consequently, there is now a forest “fire deficit” in the western United States attributable to the combined effects of human activities, ecological, and climate changes. Large fires in the late 20th and 21st century fires have begun to address the fire deficit, but it is continuing to grow."

Reduction in fires due to humans likely has something to do with the typical "taming of nature" and deforestation that often comes with settlement.

We also have evidence of large fires in other locations going back hundreds of millions of years.

Let me know if you need me to provide even more evidence.

[Blackwing]

Some of the fires were arson and they were arrested.

[Mindfulness.]

Originally Posted by Blackwing

Some of the fires were arson and they were arrested.

That really is just an awful thing to be doing, especially when the land is already so dry.

[Arabesque- golfing girl.]

This is sad, hopefully it stops soon and everyone is okay.

[Eerie In Wonderland]

"This is just awful. Thinking about all those currently affected."
Thanks for thinking of all of us It's rough for sure but LA will rebuild one day. -A Californian

[Proud90sKid]

The Santa Ana winds are dying down....for now. That is very good news and will help contain the fire.

[Eerie In Wonderland]

Originally Posted by Proud90sKid

The Santa Ana winds are dying down....for now. That is very good news and will help contain the fire.

Extremely good news. They're supposed to come back next week but they'll be much less powerful. Now all we have to do is pray for rain.

[Mindfulness.]

Originally Posted by Proud90sKid

The Santa Ana winds are dying down....for now. That is very good news and will help contain the fire.

Hopefully this will continue and the firefighters are able to get the fires under control.

[Eerie In Wonderland]

Originally Posted by Mindfulness.

Hopefully this will continue and the firefighters are able to get the fires under control.

[color="Black"]
Neither of the fires have grown for days, which is awesome news for us. Most of the areas are still unsafe to enter, but it's better than nothing. If anyone wants more info on the fires, I've been watching CNN's live update page, but I can't post URLs yet, sorry.

[Proud90sKid]

To put it in perspective: this is the costliest natural disaster in US history...surpassing Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Harvey. It isn't the deadliest though at least. The deadliest was the Galveston, Texas hurricane of 1900 that killed some 6000-12000 people.

[Mindfulness.]

Originally Posted by Eerie In Wonderland

[color="Black"]
Neither of the fires have grown for days, which is awesome news for us. Most of the areas are still unsafe to enter, but it's better than nothing. If anyone wants more info on the fires, I've been watching CNN's live update page, but I can't post URLs yet, sorry.

Let's hope they continue not to grow.

[Eerie In Wonderland]

Originally Posted by Mindfulness.

Let's hope they continue not to grow.

As far as I know the fires haven't grown much/at all today. Los Angeles shall rebuild!

[Mindfulness.]

Originally Posted by Eerie In Wonderland

As far as I know the fires haven't grown much/at all today. Los Angeles shall rebuild!

It will.
I remember the devastating fires here in Australia. I lived about 30 minutes from one of the major fires and we would often have burned leaves on our lawn as well as the ash that was falling like light snow. It definitely was a scary time for all those affected.

[Hiraeth.]

Originally Posted by Mindfulness.

It will.
I remember the devastating fires here in Australia. I lived about 30 minutes from one of the major fires and we would often have burned leaves on our lawn as well as the ash that was falling like light snow. It definitely was a scary time for all those affected.

I remember that in the news, but then the media fixed their attention on the new virus growing out of China.

I hope there hasn't been any more devastating fires in Australia since 2020. Canada had a few fires that affected our sunsets and air quality.

[Mindfulness.]

Originally Posted by Hiraeth.

I remember that in the news, but then the media fixed their attention on the new virus growing out of China.

I hope there hasn't been any more devastating fires in Australia since 2020. Canada had a few fires that affected our sunsets and air quality.

It is hard when there hasn't been any rain either. When the fires started here, we were in a drought, and I believe some of the fires were caused by lightning.

[Eerie In Wonderland]

Originally Posted by Mindfulness.

It is hard when there hasn't been any rain either. When the fires started here, we were in a drought, and I believe some of the fires were caused by lightning.

Same here in Cali. We're all begging and praying for rain right now. We've been in a drought for years, but this with the Santa Anas is practically a death sentence.

[TherianLOVER]

Not from Cali, but I am so sorry to hear about everything going on up there.(Chat I thought LA was a state until we did geography in 6th grade- HELP???). Hope you guys get some good rain to stop the fires. I'm from Connecticut, so we don't get wildfires often unless it's summer(even then it's not bad whatsoever), so I'm so sorry for you guys.

[Proud90sKid]

Originally Posted by Eerie In Wonderland

Same here in Cali. We're all begging and praying for rain right now. We've been in a drought for years, but this with the Santa Anas is practically a death sentence.

The GFS and EWMWF models are showing a possibility of rain near the region this weekend Saturday into Monday. Likely won't be a massive downpour but it is something at least. The synoptic setup bringing those rains appears unfavorable for Santa Ana winds to develop, also good.

There will be a better picture of what will happen later this week when the models have less error and it becomes within the forecast time span of the higher resolution NAM model.

[Mindfulness.]

Originally Posted by Eerie In Wonderland

Same here in Cali. We're all begging and praying for rain right now. We've been in a drought for years, but this with the Santa Anas is practically a death sentence.

Yes, we were in a drought for years as well. However, there was rain towards the end of the bushfires which obviously helped dramatically.

[Proud90sKid]

It is expected to rain tonight in LA due to a passing frontal system. It will also make the winds less favorable for fire growth. It won't be long lived, but it is something. Now (or rather 3 weeks ago) would have been a great time for an atmospheric river event despite the risk of landslides. An atmospheric river is essentially when a frontal system sucks moisture from deep in the tropics and sends it all the way to the west coast. These are the biggest large scale rain events that California receives and they typically occur in winter. Unfortunately, southern coastal California has a Mediterranean climate which means "subtropical with dry summer" and as the months go on, the climatology of the region works against the chances of rain. Hopefully there isnt a big fire next year. Drought is probably related to the La Nina/anti-El Nino pattern of the Pacific. La Nina winters typically move the mean position of the jet stream and storm track northward of southern California and produce drier conditions. This pattern may unfortunately last through next winter but it is impossible to know for sure until after spring passes because El Nino Southern Oscillation is not well predicted over specifically the spring months (called the spring predictability barrier). Unfortunately there isnt a lot of model support for El Nino later this year(which would be a really good thing in terms of reduced hurricane activity in the Atlantic and increase in south Cali rainfall), but cool neutral would still be better for the state than a double dip La Nina.